A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
